Darren Waller Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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NFL · Player Props

Darren Waller

TE · New York Giants

Receiving Yards

New York Giants vs New York Jets · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 30, 2023 12:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Darren Waller Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 45.5 (-115/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 43.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 45.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The New York Giants will be rolling with backup QB Tyrod Taylor in this contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
At a -3-point disadvantage, the Giants are underdogs in this week's contest, implying more of a reliance on passing than their normal approach.
The 9th-most plays in the league have been called by the Giants this year (a monstrous 61.4 per game on average).
In this week's contest, Darren Waller is anticipated by the projections to secure a spot in the 97th percentile when it comes to TEs with 7.0 targets.
With a RATE1-RATE2 point growth in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive involvement) from last season to this one, Darren Waller has been more prominently utilized in his offense's passing offense.

Favors Under

Our trusted projections expect the New York Giants to be the 4th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 52.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
Based on the game dynamics and traits of each team, our trusted projections expect this game (with an average of 26.80 seconds per play) will have the 11th-slowest pace out of all the games this week.
After accruing 65.0 air yards per game last year, Darren Waller has gotten worse this year, now boasting 56.0 per game.
In regards to pass-blocking (and the influence it has on all pass attack stats), the offensive line of the New York Giants ranks as the worst in the league this year.
Darren Waller's 7.9 adjusted yards per target this year conveys a meaningful reduction in his pass-catching proficiency over last year's 9.8 rate.