Darren Waller Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Darren Waller

NFL · Player Props

Darren Waller

TE · New York Giants

Receiving Yards

New York Giants vs Washington Commanders · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 22, 2023 11:16 PM UTC

Analysis

Darren Waller Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 38.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 36.5 @ -116 before it was bet up to 38.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Giants may take to the air less in this week's contest (and call more rushes) as a result of being be forced to start backup quarterback Tyrod Taylor.
At a -3-point disadvantage, the Giants are underdogs this week, suggesting more of a reliance on passing than their standard game plan.
The 9th-highest number of plays in football have been run by the Giants this year (a colossal 61.8 per game on average).
Opposing teams have averaged 37.5 pass attempts per game versus the Commanders defense this year: 9th-most in the NFL.
The predictive model expects Darren Waller to accrue 6.2 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 92nd percentile among tight ends.

Favors Under

Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Giants to pass on 50.2% of their chances: the 2nd-lowest rate among all teams this week.
The forecast calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
After accruing 65.0 air yards per game last year, Darren Waller has produced significantly fewer this year, now pacing 54.0 per game.
In regards to pocket protection (and the significance it has on all passing attack statistics), the offensive line of the New York Giants profiles as the worst in the league this year.
Darren Waller's pass-catching effectiveness has declined this season, accumulating a mere 6.99 adjusted yards-per-target vs a 9.78 mark last season.

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