Darren Waller Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

reorder

NFL · Player Props

Darren Waller

TE · New York Giants

Receiving Yards

San Francisco 49ers vs New York Giants · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 21, 2023 11:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Darren Waller Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 48.5 (-133/-103).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 45.5 @ -119 before it was bet up to 48.5 @ -133.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Giants are a giant 10.5-point underdog in this game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
Opposing QBs have averaged 37.5 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense since the start of last season: 2nd-most in football.
THE BLITZ projects Darren Waller to total 6.3 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking in the 96th percentile among TEs.
THE BLITZ projects Darren Waller to be much more involved in his offense's passing game this week (21.0% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (15.5% in games he has played).
Darren Waller has put up a monstrous 63.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 97th percentile among TEs.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Giants to call the least offensive plays among all teams this week with 59.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
The New York Giants offensive line profiles as the worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all air attack statistics across the board.
The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has shown good efficiency versus tight ends since the start of last season, giving up 5.62 yards-per-target to the position: the 3rd-least in the league.
The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has performed very well when opposing TEs have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 3.67 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the least in the league.