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Darren Waller

Darren Waller Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 16

Philadelphia Eagles vs New York Giants

Darren Waller Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 35.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 38.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 35.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

This week's line suggests an extreme throwing game script for the Giants, who are big -14-point underdogs.

Our trusted projections expect the Giants as the 7th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 60.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 41.1 pass attempts per game against the Eagles defense this year: most in the NFL.

The leading projections forecast Darren Waller to total 7.4 targets in this week's game, on balance, placing him in the 93rd percentile when it comes to tight ends.

Darren Waller's 50.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit higher this year than it was last year at 35.9.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The leading projections forecast the Giants to call the 6th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 63.3 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.

After accruing 65.0 air yards per game last year, Darren Waller has seen a big decline this year, currently averaging 48.0 per game.

The New York offensive line profiles as the worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all pass game metrics across the board.

Darren Waller's pass-game efficiency has diminished this season, accumulating just 7.66 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a 9.78 mark last season.

As it relates to defensive ends rushing the passer, Philadelphia's DE corps has been great this year, grading out as the 3rd-best in the NFL.

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