Darren Waller Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Darren Waller

NFL · Player Props

Darren Waller

TE · New York Giants

Receiving Yards

New Orleans Saints vs New York Giants · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 17, 2023 8:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Darren Waller Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 28.5 (-100/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 28.5 @ +120 before it was bet up to 28.5 @ -100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the Giants are underdogs in this week's contest, implying more of a focus on passing than their normal game plan.
Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Giants are expected by our trusted projection set to call 66.7 total plays in this contest: the 4th-highest number on the slate this week.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
In this game, Darren Waller is predicted by the predictive model to slot into the 88th percentile among tight ends with 5.6 targets.

Favors Under

With a 58.6% rate of throwing the ball (context-neutralized) this year, the 7th-least pass-centric offense in football has been the New York Giants.
Opposing teams teams have been unwilling to test the pass defense of the Saints, averaging the 9th-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 34.4 per game) this year.
As it relates to protecting the passer (and the effect it has on all passing attack metrics), the O-line of the New York Giants profiles as the worst in the league this year.
The Saints pass defense has given up the 5th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (67.9%) versus TEs this year (67.9%).
The Saints linebackers profile as the 8th-best LB corps in the NFL this year in defending receivers.

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