Darren Waller Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Darren Waller

NFL · Player Props

Darren Waller

TE · New York Giants

Receiving Yards

New York Giants vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 10, 2023 11:51 PM EST

Analysis

Darren Waller Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 45.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 47.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 45.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Giants are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Giants to run the 2nd-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 66.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New York Giants have called the 10th-most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a monstrous 59.6 plays per game.
The weather forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 34.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Dallas Cowboys defense since the start of last season: 9th-most in the NFL.

Favors Under

The Giants rank as the 8th-least pass-heavy offense in the league (adjusted for context) since the start of last season with a 56.2% pass rate.
The New York Giants O-line ranks as the 4th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all passing attack stats across the board.
Darren Waller has been among the worst TEs in football at generating extra yardage, averaging a measly 2.68 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while ranking in the 20th percentile.
The Dallas Cowboys pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency versus tight ends since the start of last season, allowing 5.78 yards-per-target to the position: the 3rd-least in the NFL.
The Dallas Cowboys linebackers project as the 6th-best collection of LBs in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.

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