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Darren Waller
NFL · Player Props
Darren Waller
TE · Las Vegas Raiders
Receiving Yards
Las Vegas Raiders vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 18, 2022 Updated Jan 8, 2023 1:21 AM UTC
NFL Props Darren Waller Receiving Yards

Darren Waller Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 35.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 40.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 35.5 @ -110.

Favors Over
  • The Las Vegas Raiders will be rolling out backup QB Jarrett Stidham this week, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
  • The Raiders are a massive 8.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
  • THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders to be the 7th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 63.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
  • Opposing QBs have averaged 37.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 6th-most in the league.
Favors Under
  • The Las Vegas Raiders will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Josh McDaniels, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.8% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
  • THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders offense to be the 6th-slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 29.19 seconds per snap.
  • Darren Waller has posted far fewer air yards this season (64.0 per game) than he did last season (88.0 per game).
  • Darren Waller's 35.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit lower this year than it was last year at 56.5.
  • Darren Waller's ability to pick up extra yardage has worsened this season, totaling a mere 2.88 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 4.32 figure last season.
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