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Darren Waller

Darren Waller Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 18

Las Vegas Raiders vs Kansas City Chiefs

Darren Waller Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 35.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 40.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 35.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Las Vegas Raiders will be rolling out backup QB Jarrett Stidham this week, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.

The Raiders are a massive 8.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders to be the 7th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 63.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.

Opposing QBs have averaged 37.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 6th-most in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Las Vegas Raiders will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Josh McDaniels, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.8% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).

THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders offense to be the 6th-slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 29.19 seconds per snap.

Darren Waller has posted far fewer air yards this season (64.0 per game) than he did last season (88.0 per game).

Darren Waller's 35.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit lower this year than it was last year at 56.5.

Darren Waller's ability to pick up extra yardage has worsened this season, totaling a mere 2.88 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 4.32 figure last season.

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