Darren Waller Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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Darren Waller

NFL · Player Props

Darren Waller

TE · Las Vegas Raiders

Receiving Yards

Las Vegas Raiders vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 17, 2022

Updated Jan 1, 2023 8:41 PM EST

Analysis

Darren Waller Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 30.5 (+108/-139).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 30.5 @ -117 before it was bet down to 30.5 @ -139.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Las Vegas Raiders will be rolling with backup QB Jarrett Stidham this week, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
The Raiders are a 6-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders as the 5th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 64.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing offenses have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 5th-most in the NFL.

Favors Under

The Las Vegas Raiders boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Josh McDaniels, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.5% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to run the least total plays on the slate this week with 60.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Darren Waller has compiled far fewer air yards this season (58.0 per game) than he did last season (88.0 per game).
Darren Waller's 33.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly lower this season than it was last season at 56.5.
Darren Waller's talent in grinding out extra yardage have tailed off this year, averaging just 3.26 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 4.32 mark last year.

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