Darren Waller Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Darren Waller

NFL · Player Props

Darren Waller

TE · Las Vegas Raiders

Receiving TD

Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 11, 2022 12:10 AM UTC

Analysis

Darren Waller Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+205/-308).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -297 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -308.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Raiders are a massive 7-point underdog in this game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
The Las Vegas Raiders have called the 9th-most plays in football this year, averaging a monstrous 63.5 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Opposing offenses have averaged 45.8 pass attempts per game against the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: most in football.
Darren Waller has been a big part of his team's passing offense near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 20.0% this year, which puts him in the 93rd percentile among tight ends.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to call the least total plays on the slate this week with 63.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Darren Waller has notched quite a few less air yards this year (70.0 per game) than he did last year (86.0 per game).
Darren Waller's 42.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably worse this season than it was last season at 56.6.
The Kansas City Chiefs linebackers grade out as the 9th-best LB corps in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
The Kansas City Chiefs defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a measly 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the best in the NFL since the start of last season.

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