Darren Waller Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Darren Waller

NFL · Player Props

Darren Waller

TE · Las Vegas Raiders

Receiving TD

Las Vegas Raiders vs Denver Broncos · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:15 PM EST

Analysis

Darren Waller Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+173/-248).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +218 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +173.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Darren Waller has been a key part of his team's offense near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 17.9% this year, which ranks in the 90th percentile among tight ends.
Darren Waller has posted a monstrous 82.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 98th percentile among tight ends.
Darren Waller's receiving reliability have gotten better this season, with his Completion% jumping from 57.5% to 69.8%.
The Las Vegas Raiders O-line has allowed their QB 2.64 seconds before the pass (8th-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a strong effect on all pass game stats across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to run the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 31.8 pass attempts per game against the Denver Broncos defense since the start of last season: 6th-least in the league.
Darren Waller's 41.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit lower this year than it was last year at 56.6.
The Denver Broncos defense has surrendered the 3rd-least TDs through the air in football to tight ends: 0.20 per game since the start of last season.
The Denver Broncos linebackers project as the 5th-best LB corps in football since the start of last season in covering receivers.

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