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Darren Waller
NFL · Player Props
Darren Waller
TE · Las Vegas Raiders
Receiving TD
Las Vegas Raiders vs Denver Broncos · Week 4, 2022 Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:15 PM EST
NFL Props Darren Waller Receiving TD

Darren Waller Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+173/-248).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +218 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +173.

Favors Over
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
  • Darren Waller has been a key part of his team's offense near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 17.9% this year, which ranks in the 90th percentile among tight ends.
  • Darren Waller has posted a monstrous 82.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 98th percentile among tight ends.
  • Darren Waller's receiving reliability have gotten better this season, with his Completion% jumping from 57.5% to 69.8%.
  • The Las Vegas Raiders O-line has allowed their QB 2.64 seconds before the pass (8th-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a strong effect on all pass game stats across the board.
Favors Under
  • THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to run the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 31.8 pass attempts per game against the Denver Broncos defense since the start of last season: 6th-least in the league.
  • Darren Waller's 41.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit lower this year than it was last year at 56.6.
  • The Denver Broncos defense has surrendered the 3rd-least TDs through the air in football to tight ends: 0.20 per game since the start of last season.
  • The Denver Broncos linebackers project as the 5th-best LB corps in football since the start of last season in covering receivers.
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