Darren Waller Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Darren Waller

NFL · Player Props

Darren Waller

TE · Las Vegas Raiders

Receiving TD

Las Vegas Raiders vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 7:25 PM UTC

Analysis

Darren Waller Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+175/-235).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to call the least offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.9 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Darren Waller has notched a whopping 86.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 99th percentile among tight ends.
Darren Waller's 55.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the best in the league: 99th percentile for TEs.
Darren Waller's sure-handedness have been refined this season, with his Completion% rising from 57.5% to 65.7%.

Favors Under

The Raiders are a 6-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
Opposing QBs have averaged 31.2 pass attempts per game versus the Arizona Cardinals defense since the start of last season: 4th-least in the league.
THE BLITZ projects Darren Waller to be a less important option in his offense's air attack near the end zone this week (19.1% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (25.0% in games he has played).
The Las Vegas Raiders O-line ranks as the 9th-worst in the league since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all pass game metrics across the board.
The Arizona Cardinals pass defense has allowed the 3rd-lowest Completion% in the NFL (64.3%) to tight ends since the start of last season (64.3%).

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