Darren Waller Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

Darren Waller

TE · Las Vegas Raiders

Receiving TD

Los Angeles Chargers vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM EST

Analysis

Darren Waller Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+198/-294).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -285 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -294.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Raiders are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the most plays run on the slate this week at 129.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Darren Waller has accrued a whopping 86.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 99th percentile among TEs.
Darren Waller's 56.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in football: 99th percentile for tight ends.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects Darren Waller to be a much smaller piece of his team's passing game near the end zone this week (18.7% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (25.9% in games he has played).
The Las Vegas Raiders O-line profiles as the 10th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.
Darren Waller has been among the most unreliable receivers in the league among TEs, hauling in a mere 57.3% of balls thrown his way since the start of last season, checking in at the 2nd percentile.
The Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has given up the 10th-lowest Completion% in the league (70%) vs. TEs since the start of last season (70.0%).
The Los Angeles Chargers linebackers grade out as the 5th-best collection of LBs in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.