Darrell Henderson Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Darrell Henderson

RB · Los Angeles Rams

Rushing Yards

San Francisco 49ers vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 4, 2022 12:05 AM UTC

Analysis

Darrell Henderson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 21.5 (+110/-160).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 22.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 21.5 @ -160.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Los Angeles Rams have played in the 2nd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which ought to mean reduced pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing offense results when facing windier conditions in this week's contest.
The Los Angeles Rams offensive line profiles as the 6th-best in the league since the start of last season in run blocking.
Darrell Henderson has picked up 51.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the highest marks in the league among RBs (82nd percentile).
The Los Angeles Rams have gone no-huddle on 15.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (3rd-most in the NFL). This quickens the pace, resulting in more volume and stat production.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams as the least run-centric team on the slate this week with a 35.9% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Rams to run the least plays on offense on the slate this week with 61.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Rams have run the 2nd-least plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a mere 57.2 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Darrell Henderson to be a much smaller piece of his team's running game this week (31.8% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (45.5% in games he has played).
Darrell Henderson has been among the worst running backs in football at picking up extra running yardage, averaging a mere 2.37 yards-after-contact this year while grading out in the 12th percentile.