Darrell Henderson Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Darrell Henderson

NFL · Player Props

Darrell Henderson

RB · Los Angeles Rams

Rushing Yards

Arizona Cardinals vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 11:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Darrell Henderson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 36.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 38.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 36.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Rams are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.
The Los Angeles Rams O-line profiles as the 5th-best in the league since the start of last season at blocking for rushers.
Darrell Henderson has generated 53.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the largest marks in football among RBs (83rd percentile).
The Los Angeles Rams have gone no-huddle on 15.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (3rd-most in the NFL). This speeds up the pace, leading to more volume and stat-padding.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams as the least run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 35.3% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams as the 3rd-slowest paced defense in the league (in a neutral context) right now, with opposing offenses averaging 28.46 seconds per play.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Darrell Henderson to be a less important option in his offense's run game this week (41.8% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (56.8% in games he has played).
Darrell Henderson has been among the bottom running backs in the league at grinding out extra rushing yardage, averaging a measly 2.39 yards-after-contact this year while ranking in the 21st percentile.

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