Darrell Henderson Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

Darrell Henderson

RB · Los Angeles Rams

Rushing Yards

Los Angeles Rams vs Buffalo Bills · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 9, 2022 12:26 AM UTC

Analysis

Darrell Henderson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 31.5 (-145/+106).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 27.5 @ -117 before it was bet up to 31.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Rams to run the 4th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 64.6 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Rams have played in the 2nd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which should lead to lower pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing offense efficiency when facing windier conditions in this week's contest.
The Los Angeles Rams O-line profiles as the 6th-best in football since the start of last season at blocking for rushers.
Darrell Henderson has picked up 54.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the highest figures in the league among running backs (84th percentile).
Darrell Henderson's ground effectiveness (4.70 yards per carry) has been some of the best in the league since the start of last season (85th percentile among RBs).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams as the 2nd-least run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 34.9% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The forecast calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Darrell Henderson to be a much smaller piece of his offense's rushing attack this week (33.1% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (57.1% in games he has played).
Darrell Henderson has been among the bottom RBs in football at picking up extra ground yardage, averaging a measly 2.49 yards-after-contact since the start of last season while checking in at the 12th percentile.
The Buffalo Bills defense has produced the 7th-best efficiency against opposing rushing attacks since the start of last season, surrendering just 4.18 yards-per-carry.