Darrell Henderson Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Darrell Henderson

NFL · Player Props

Darrell Henderson

RB · Los Angeles Rams

Rushing TD

Los Angeles Rams vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 11:11 PM EST

Analysis

Darrell Henderson Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+238/-379).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -311 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -379.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects Darrell Henderson to be a more integral piece of his team's running game near the end zone this week (50.6% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (33.3% in games he has played).
Darrell Henderson has rushed for 0.33 TDs per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the biggest figures in football among RBs (78th percentile).
Opposing offenses have rushed for the 10th-most touchdowns in the NFL (1.00 per game) vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense this year.
The Los Angeles Rams have gone no-huddle on 15.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (3rd-most in the NFL). This quickens the pace, resulting in more volume and stat accumulation.

Favors Under

The Rams rank as the 9th-least run-oriented offense in football near the goal line (context-neutralized) this year with a 36.2% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Rams to run the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 60.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Rams O-line grades out as the worst in the league this year at blocking for rushers.
The San Francisco 49ers safeties grade out as the 2nd-best collection of safeties in football this year in regard to run defense.
The Los Angeles Rams have gone for it on 4th down just 14.7% of the time since the start of last season (4th-least in the NFL), which generally means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.

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