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Darrell Henderson

Darrell Henderson Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 3

Arizona Cardinals vs Los Angeles Rams

Darrell Henderson Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+241/-385).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +245 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +241.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Rams are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.

The Los Angeles Rams O-line profiles as the 5th-best in the league since the start of last season at blocking for rushers.

Darrell Henderson has run for 0.40 TDs per game on the ground since the start of last season (on average), one of the biggest figures in the NFL among running backs (86th percentile).

The Los Angeles Rams have gone no-huddle on 15.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (3rd-most in the NFL). This speeds up the pace, leading to more volume and stat-padding.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams as the 3rd-slowest paced defense in the league (in a neutral context) right now, with opposing offenses averaging 28.46 seconds per play.

THE BLITZ projects Darrell Henderson to be a much smaller part of his team's run game near the end zone this week (43.1% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (53.8% in games he has played).

Opposing squads have run for the 3rd-least touchdowns in football (0.58 per game) vs. the Arizona Cardinals defense since the start of last season.

The Arizona Cardinals defensive tackles profile as the 6th-best collection of DTs in the NFL since the start of last season in regard to stopping the run.

The Los Angeles Rams have gone for it on 4th down a measly 14.7% of the time since the start of last season (4th-least in the NFL), which usually means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.

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