Darrell Henderson Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Darrell Henderson

NFL · Player Props

Darrell Henderson

RB · Los Angeles Rams

Rushing TD

New Orleans Saints vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 21, 2022 1:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Darrell Henderson Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+251/-408).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +257 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +251.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Darrell Henderson has rushed for 0.33 touchdowns per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the largest marks in the NFL among running backs (76th percentile).
The New Orleans Saints have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 13.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the league. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Los Angeles Rams have gone no-huddle on 15.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (3rd-most in football). This speeds up the pace, resulting in more volume and stat-padding.

Favors Under

The Rams have been the 6th-least run-centric offense in football near the goal line (in a neutral context) this year with a 36.2% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Rams to call the 6th-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.9 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Rams O-line ranks as the worst in the league this year at blocking for rushers.
The New Orleans Saints defensive ends grade out as the 6th-best unit in the NFL this year in regard to stopping the run.
The Los Angeles Rams have elected to go for it on 4th down just 14.7% of the time since the start of last season (3rd-least in football), which usually means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.

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