Darrell Henderson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

NFL · Player Props

Darrell Henderson

RB · Los Angeles Rams

Receiving Yards

Los Angeles Rams vs Carolina Panthers · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Darrell Henderson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (+105/-138).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 13.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 16.5 @ +105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams to be the 7th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 62.2% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Darrell Henderson has run a route on 59.9% of his team's dropbacks this year, ranking him in the 96th percentile among running backs.
THE BLITZ projects Darrell Henderson to earn 3.5 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 81st percentile among running backs.
Darrell Henderson has compiled a colossal 4.0 air yards per game this year: 80th percentile among running backs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).

Favors Under

The Rams are a heavy 10-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams offense to be the 10th-slowest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 28.74 seconds per play.
The Los Angeles Rams offensive line grades out as the worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all passing attack stats across the board.
Darrell Henderson has been among the least effective pass-catchers in the NFL among running backs, averaging a lowly 4.81 yards-per-target this year while ranking in the 20th percentile.
The Carolina Panthers pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs just 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the quickest in football since the start of last season.