Darrell Henderson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

Darrell Henderson

RB · Los Angeles Rams

Receiving Yards

Los Angeles Rams vs Buffalo Bills · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 8, 2022 11:56 PM UTC

Analysis

Darrell Henderson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (+106/-145).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 15.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 13.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams as the 2nd-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 65.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Rams to run the 4th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 64.6 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The forecast calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Opposing offenses have averaged 31.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Buffalo Bills defense since the start of last season: 9th-least in the league.
Darrell Henderson has run a route on 60.5% of his team's passing plays since the start of last season, placing him in the 97th percentile among running backs.

Favors Under

The Los Angeles Rams have played in the 2nd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which should lead to lower pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing offense efficiency when facing windier conditions in this week's contest.
Darrell Henderson has been among the least sure-handed receivers in the league among RBs, hauling in a measly 68.2% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, ranking in the 6th percentile.
Darrell Henderson has been among the least efficient pass-catchers in the NFL among running backs, averaging a mere 4.83 yards-per-target since the start of last season while grading out in the 20th percentile.
Darrell Henderson has been among the bottom RBs in the NFL at grinding out extra yardage, averaging just 5.83 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while grading out in the 25th percentile.
The Buffalo Bills defense has conceded the 4th-least receiving yards per game in football (just 29.0) vs. running backs since the start of last season.