Darrell Henderson Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

Darrell Henderson

RB · Los Angeles Rams

Carries

Los Angeles Rams vs Buffalo Bills · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 9, 2022 3:04 AM EST

Analysis

Darrell Henderson Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 7.5 @ +116 before it was bet up to 8.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Rams to run the 4th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 64.6 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Rams have played in the 2nd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which should lead to lower pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing offense efficiency when facing windier conditions in this week's contest.
The Los Angeles Rams O-line profiles as the 6th-best in football since the start of last season at blocking for rushers.
The Los Angeles Rams have gone no-huddle on 15.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (3rd-most in the league). This speeds up the pace, leading to more volume and stat accumulation.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams as the 2nd-least run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 34.9% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The forecast calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Darrell Henderson to be a much smaller piece of his offense's rushing attack this week (33.1% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (57.1% in games he has played).
The Buffalo Bills linebackers rank as the 6th-best unit in football since the start of last season with their run defense.
The Buffalo Bills have stacked the box against opponents on 19.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.