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Darnell Mooney

Darnell Mooney Receptions
Player Prop Week 3

Atlanta Falcons vs Kansas City Chiefs

Darnell Mooney Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-138/+106).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -138.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

A passing game script is implied by the Falcons being a -3-point underdog in this week's contest.

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Atlanta Falcons to pass on 60.6% of their downs: the 7th-greatest clip among all teams this week.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is predicted by the projections to have 131.9 offensive plays run: the 3rd-most out of all the games this week.

The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop-off.

Darnell Mooney has run a route on 88.4% of his offense's dropbacks since the start of last season, putting him in the 82nd percentile when it comes to WRs.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Opposing teams teams have been afraid to lean on the pass against the Kansas City Chiefs, averaging the 7th-fewest attempts in football (a mere 31.6 per game) since the start of last season.

Darnell Mooney is positioned as one of the worst possession receivers in football, hauling in a measly 55.8% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, checking in at the 7th percentile among WRs

The Chiefs pass defense has given up the 5th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (60.7%) to wide receivers since the start of last season (60.7%).

When it comes to cornerbacks in covering pass-catchers, Kansas City's group of CBs has been one of the most skilled since the start of last season, ranking as the 8th-best in the NFL.

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