Darnell Mooney Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Darnell Mooney

NFL · Player Props

Darnell Mooney

WR · Chicago Bears

Receiving Yards

Washington Commanders vs Chicago Bears · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 6, 2023 2:51 AM UTC

Analysis

Darnell Mooney Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 33.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 30.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 33.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bears are a 6-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
While Darnell Mooney has accounted for 10.7% of his offense's targets in games he has played this year, the predictive model expects him to be a more integral piece of Chicago's passing offense in this game at 16.0%.
Darnell Mooney's 9.5 adjusted yards per target this year conveys a an impressive progression in his pass-catching skills over last year's 8.2 figure.
With a fantastic 6.56 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (97th percentile) since the start of last season, Darnell Mooney rates among the top wide receivers in the league in the NFL in space.
The Washington Commanders defense has surrendered the 3rd-most adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (192.0) versus wide receivers this year.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Chicago Bears as the 2nd-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 51.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
The projections expect the Bears to run the 3rd-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 60.7 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Bears have called the 10th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a measly 55.8 plays per game.
Darnell Mooney has totaled far fewer air yards this year (30.0 per game) than he did last year (68.0 per game).
Darnell Mooney's possession skills have worsened this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate shrinking from 69.8% to 65.2%.

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