Darnell Mooney Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Darnell Mooney

NFL · Player Props

Darnell Mooney

WR · Chicago Bears

Receiving Yards

Chicago Bears vs Denver Broncos · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 7:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Darnell Mooney Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 32.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 28.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 32.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bears are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.
The model projects Darnell Mooney to be a much bigger part of his team's passing game this week (16.5% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (10.1% in games he has played).
Darnell Mooney has earned a monstrous 31.5% of his offense's air yards since the start of last season: 91st percentile when it comes to wideouts.
Darnell Mooney has been among the best wide receivers in the league at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a stellar 6.73 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while grading out in the 97th percentile.
The Broncos cornerbacks profile as the worst group of CBs in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.

Favors Under

Our trusted projections expect the Chicago Bears as the least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 50.2% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The model projects this game to have the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 121.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Bears have called the fewest plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 52.9 plays per game.
The Denver Broncos defense has allowed the 3rd-fewest receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 128.0) vs. WRs since the start of last season.
The Broncos pass defense has shown strong efficiency versus WRs since the start of last season, yielding 7.39 yards-per-target to the position: the 3rd-fewest in the NFL.

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