Darnell Mooney Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Darnell Mooney

NFL · Player Props

Darnell Mooney

WR · Chicago Bears

Receiving Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Chicago Bears · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 8:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Darnell Mooney Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 31.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 29.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 31.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bears are an enormous 12.5-point underdog in this game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
Opposing teams have averaged 35.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense since the start of last season: 6th-most in the NFL.
Darnell Mooney has accumulated a colossal 62.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 75th percentile among WRs.
Darnell Mooney has been among the leading WRs in football at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a terrific 6.73 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while ranking in the 96th percentile.
The Kansas City Chiefs pass defense has not been good when opposing wide receivers have gotten into space, giving up an average of 4.72 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 8th-most in the league.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the 6th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 53.6% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the 3rd-slowest paced defense in football (in a neutral context) right now, causing opposing offenses to average 29.10 seconds per play.
THE BLITZ projects Darnell Mooney to be a much smaller piece of his offense's pass attack this week (16.7% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (23.8% in games he has played).
The Kansas City Chiefs pass defense has exhibited good efficiency vs. wide receivers since the start of last season, conceding 7.90 yards-per-target to the position: the 10th-least in football.

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