Darnell Mooney Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Darnell Mooney

NFL · Player Props

Darnell Mooney

WR · Chicago Bears

Receiving Yards

Detroit Lions vs Chicago Bears · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 12:56 AM UTC

Analysis

Darnell Mooney Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 23.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 26.5 @ -118 before it was bet down to 23.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bears are a massive 7.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Darnell Mooney comes in as one of the best wideouts in the league at generating extra yardage, averaging an impressive 6.41 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while ranking in the 89th percentile.
As it relates to safeties in covering receivers, Detroit's group of safeties has been lousy this year, grading out as the 3rd-worst in the NFL.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Chicago Bears as the 6th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 54.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Bears are anticipated by the projections to call only 60.8 offensive plays in this game: the 2nd-lowest number among all teams this week.
Darnell Mooney's 81.0% Route% this season reflects a meaningful decrease in his air attack usage over last season's 92.8% mark.
After accruing 68.0 air yards per game last season, Darnell Mooney has seen a big downtick this season, now sitting at 39.0 per game.
When it comes to pass-blocking (and the influence it has on all pass game stats), the offensive line of the Bears ranks as the 10th-worst in football this year.

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