Darnell Mooney Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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NFL · Player Props

Darnell Mooney

WR · Chicago Bears

Receiving Yards

Chicago Bears vs Miami Dolphins · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Darnell Mooney Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 45.5 (-118/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 43.5 @ -108 before it was bet up to 45.5 @ -118.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bears are an enormous 9.5-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
Darnell Mooney's 69.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably better this season than it was last season at 62.2.
Darnell Mooney's skills in generating extra yardage have gotten better this season, compiling 9.20 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a measly 3.28 mark last season.
The Miami Dolphins cornerbacks profile as the 5th-worst CB corps in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
The Chicago Bears O-line has given their quarterback 2.51 seconds before getting pressured (10th-best in football since the start of last season), which has a strong effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The Chicago Bears will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 7.4% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 41.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the least plays run out of all the games this week at 123.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Chicago Bears have run the 5th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling just 54.8 plays per game.
The weatherman calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.