Darnell Mooney Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Darnell Mooney

NFL · Player Props

Darnell Mooney

WR · Chicago Bears

Receiving Yards

Dallas Cowboys vs Chicago Bears · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 8:06 PM EST

Analysis

Darnell Mooney Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 43.5 (-102/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 42.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 43.5 @ -102.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bears are a big 9.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing QBs have averaged 38.9 pass attempts per game versus the Dallas Cowboys defense this year: 7th-most in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects Darnell Mooney to notch 8.0 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 83rd percentile among wide receivers.
Darnell Mooney's 73.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly higher this year than it was last year at 62.2.

Favors Under

The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 5.5% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the 4th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 52.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears offense to be the 4th-slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 29.62 seconds per snap.
Darnell Mooney has posted quite a few less air yards this season (79.0 per game) than he did last season (88.0 per game).
The Chicago Bears O-line ranks as the 7th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense stats across the board.

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