Darnell Mooney Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Darnell Mooney

NFL · Player Props

Darnell Mooney

WR · Chicago Bears

Receiving Yards

Chicago Bears vs Houston Texans · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 4:50 PM EST

Analysis

Darnell Mooney Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 43.5 (-103/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 46.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 43.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Darnell Mooney has run a route on 93.1% of his team's passing plays since the start of last season, putting him in the 93rd percentile among wide receivers.
Darnell Mooney has put up a monstrous 83.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 87th percentile among wide receivers.
Darnell Mooney has been among the best WRs in the game since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 54.0 yards per game while grading out in the 81st percentile.
The Houston Texans defense has surrendered the 5th-most receiving yards per game in the league (165.0) to WRs since the start of last season.
The Houston Texans pass defense has displayed poor efficiency against wide receivers since the start of last season, giving up 9.33 yards-per-target to the position: the 2nd-most in the NFL.

Favors Under

The Chicago Bears will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.7% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The Bears are a 3-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 44.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears offense to be the 7th-most sluggish paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 28.26 seconds per snap.
The forecast calls for 18-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.

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