Darnell Mooney Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Darnell Mooney

NFL · Player Props

Darnell Mooney

WR · Chicago Bears

Receiving TD

Chicago Bears vs Miami Dolphins · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 5:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Darnell Mooney Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+318/-584).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -435 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -584.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bears are an enormous 9.5-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Darnell Mooney to be a more important option in his offense's passing attack near the end zone this week (21.1% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (15.8% in games he has played).
Darnell Mooney's 69.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably better this season than it was last season at 62.2.
The Miami Dolphins cornerbacks profile as the 5th-worst CB corps in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
The Chicago Bears O-line has given their quarterback 2.51 seconds before getting pressured (10th-best in football since the start of last season), which has a strong effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the least plays run out of all the games this week at 123.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Chicago Bears have run the 5th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling just 54.8 plays per game.
The weatherman calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
Darnell Mooney has compiled far fewer air yards this season (72.0 per game) than he did last season (88.0 per game).
Darnell Mooney ranks in the 1st percentile among wideouts when it comes to catching touchdowns this year, averaging just 0.00 per game.

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