Darnell Mooney Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Darnell Mooney

NFL · Player Props

Darnell Mooney

WR · Chicago Bears

Receiving TD

Chicago Bears vs Washington Commanders · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 14, 2022 12:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Darnell Mooney Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+261/-432).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +318 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +261.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects Darnell Mooney to be a more integral piece of his offense's pass game near the end zone this week (17.6% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (0.0% in games he has played).
Darnell Mooney's 63.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the best in the league: 92nd percentile for WRs.
The Washington Commanders defense has allowed the 3rd-most passing TDs in the league to WRs: 1.40 per game this year.
The Washington Commanders cornerbacks profile as the 2nd-worst unit in football this year in covering receivers.
The Chicago Bears O-line has allowed their QB 2.51 seconds before getting pressured (10th-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a positive impact on all passing offense stats across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 127.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Chicago Bears have called the least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 49.2 plays per game.
Darnell Mooney has compiled significantly fewer air yards this season (71.0 per game) than he did last season (88.0 per game).
The Chicago Bears O-line grades out as the 4th-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all passing game metrics across the board.
Darnell Mooney's sure-handedness have tailed off this season, with his Completion% falling off from 59.7% to 49.0%.

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