Darnell Mooney Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Darnell Mooney

NFL · Player Props

Darnell Mooney

WR · Chicago Bears

Receiving TD

New York Giants vs Chicago Bears · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:20 PM UTC

Analysis

Darnell Mooney Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+352/-686).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +360 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +352.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bears are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Darnell Mooney to be a more important option in his team's passing attack near the goal line this week (18.5% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (0.0% in games he has played).
Darnell Mooney has accumulated a colossal 81.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 86th percentile among wideouts.
Darnell Mooney's 61.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the league leaders: 91st percentile for WRs.
The New York Giants pass defense has yielded the 7th-highest Completion% in the NFL (67.9%) to WRs since the start of last season (67.9%).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears offense as the 6th-slowest paced team in football (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 29.41 seconds per snap.
The forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
Darnell Mooney's sure-handedness have tailed off this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 59.7% to 38.1%.
The New York Giants cornerbacks profile as the 6th-best CB corps in the league since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
The Chicago Bears have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 14.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-least in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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