Darnell Mooney Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 2

NFL · Player Props

Darnell Mooney

WR · Chicago Bears

Receiving TD

Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 19, 2022 12:15 AM EST

Analysis

Darnell Mooney Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+258/-434).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +310 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +258.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bears are a big 10-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Darnell Mooney has notched a whopping 85.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 89th percentile among wideouts.
Darnell Mooney's 61.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the best in the NFL: 91st percentile for WRs.
The Green Bay Packers defense has conceded the 3rd-most touchdowns through the air in the NFL to wide receivers: 1.17 per game since the start of last season.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Bears to call the 3rd-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 59.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Green Bay Packers pass defense has allowed the 2nd-lowest Completion% in football (60.2%) to wide receivers since the start of last season (60.2%).
The Green Bay Packers linebackers project as the 2nd-best collection of LBs in football since the start of last season in covering receivers.
The Chicago Bears have faced a stacked the box on just 14.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Green Bay Packers have stacked the box against opponents on just 8.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-least in football. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.