Darnell Mooney Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Darnell Mooney

NFL · Player Props

Darnell Mooney

WR · Chicago Bears

Receiving TD

Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 13, 2022 5:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Darnell Mooney Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+285/-410).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.0 pass attempts per game against the Detroit Lions defense this year: 10th-most in the league.
Darnell Mooney has been a key part of his team's offense near the end zone, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 21.7% this year, which puts him in the 85th percentile among wideouts.
Darnell Mooney's 68.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the best in the NFL: 92nd percentile for wide receivers.
Darnell Mooney's receiving reliability have gotten better this year, with his Completion% rising from 59.7% to 67.0%.
The Detroit Lions pass defense has yielded the 9th-highest Completion% in football (68.3%) versus wideouts this year (68.3%).

Favors Under

The Bears are a 3-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 126.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Chicago Bears have called the 8th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a mere 55.9 plays per game.
Darnell Mooney has notched quite a few less air yards this year (70.0 per game) than he did last year (88.0 per game).
The Chicago Bears have faced a stacked the box on a mere 14.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-least in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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