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Darius Slayton Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 28.5 (-110/-110).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 31.5 @ -113 before it was bet down to 28.5 @ -110.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The Giants will be starting backup quarterback Tommy DeVito this week, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.The Giants are a 6-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.The 5th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Giants this year (a whopping 61.2 per game on average).The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, enticing opposing QBs to attempt the 2nd-most passes in the league (39.0 per game) this year.After averaging 55.0 air yards per game last year, Darius Slayton has undergone big improvement this year, currently boasting 76.0 per game.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Giants to pass on 53.6% of their plays: the 5th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.The model projects this game to have the 2nd-fewest plays run on the slate this week at 126.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.Windy weather conditions (like the 14-mph being forecasted in this game) generally prompt lessened passing effectiveness, lower air attack volume, and higher run volume.Darius Slayton's 2.62 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year indicates a meaningful regression in his efficiency in picking up extra yardage over last year's 6.0% rate.This year, the daunting Buccaneers defense has given up the 5th-least adjusted yards-per-target in the league to opposing WRs: a meager 7.5 yards.
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