Darius Slayton Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 15

NFL · Player Props

Darius Slayton

WR · New York Giants

Receiving TD

Washington Commanders vs New York Giants · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 1:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Darius Slayton Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+280/-481).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -449 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -481.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Giants are a heavy 7.5-point underdog in this week's game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants to be the 6th-quickest paced defense in football (in a neutral context) at the present time, leading opposing offenses to average 27.50 seconds per play.
THE BLITZ projects Darius Slayton to be a much bigger part of his team's passing offense near the goal line this week (16.7% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (9.1% in games he has played).
Darius Slayton has posted quite a few more air yards this season (62.0 per game) than he did last season (57.0 per game).
Darius Slayton's 48.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably higher this season than it was last season at 37.2.

Favors Under

Opposing offenses have averaged 32.2 pass attempts per game against the Washington Commanders defense this year: 4th-least in the NFL.
The New York Giants offensive line profiles as the 8th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack metrics across the board.
The Washington Commanders safeties profile as the best safety corps in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
The New York Giants offensive line has allowed their quarterback a mere 2.41 seconds before getting pressured (8th-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all pass attack stats across the board.
The New York Giants have used motion in their offense on 26.6% of their play-calls since the start of last season (2nd-least in the NFL), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.