Darius Slayton Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Darius Slayton

NFL · Player Props

Darius Slayton

WR · New York Giants

Receiving TD

New York Giants vs Houston Texans · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 13, 2022 5:36 PM EST

Analysis

Darius Slayton Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+365/-731).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -659 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -731.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants as the 2nd-fastest paced defense in football (context-neutralized) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 27.20 seconds per play.
Darius Slayton's sure-handedness have been refined this season, with his Completion% jumping from 46.0% to 67.9%.
The Houston Texans safeties rank as the 2nd-worst unit in the league this year in pass coverage.
The New York Giants have used play action on 28.4% of their passing plays since the start of last season (10th-most in football), tricking the defense into thinking it's a run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.
The New York Giants have gone no-huddle on 30.1% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-most in football). This speeds up the pace, leading to more volume and stat-padding.

Favors Under

The Giants are a 5.5-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
Opposing QBs have averaged 33.6 pass attempts per game against the Houston Texans defense this year: 8th-least in football.
Darius Slayton has compiled quite a few less air yards this year (48.0 per game) than he did last year (57.0 per game).
The New York Giants O-line profiles as the 9th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.
The Houston Texans defense has surrendered the 2nd-least touchdowns through the air in the NFL to wideouts: 0.38 per game this year.

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