Dante Pettis Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 16

NFL · Player Props

Dante Pettis

WR · Chicago Bears

Receptions

Chicago Bears vs Buffalo Bills · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 24, 2022 9:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Dante Pettis Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-103/-128).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -128.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bears are a big 8.5-point underdog in this game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
Opposing teams have averaged 36.9 pass attempts per game versus the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 9th-most in football.
THE BLITZ projects Dante Pettis to be much more involved in his offense's passing offense this week (15.5% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (9.4% in games he has played).
The Chicago Bears O-line has afforded their QB 2.51 seconds before getting pressured (10th-best in the league since the start of last season), which has a positive impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.
The Buffalo Bills have stacked the box vs. opponents on 19.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in the league. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 6.9% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the 2nd-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 42.3% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-least plays run out of all the games this week at 124.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Chicago Bears have run the 4th-least plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 53.9 plays per game.
The weather forecast calls for 23-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.