Dante Pettis Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Dante Pettis

NFL · Player Props

Dante Pettis

WR · Chicago Bears

Receiving Yards

New England Patriots vs Chicago Bears · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 25, 2022 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Dante Pettis Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (+104/-142).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 22.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 20.5 @ -142.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bears are a giant 8.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 40.0 pass attempts per game vs. the New England Patriots defense this year: 8th-most in the NFL.
Dante Pettis has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this season (68.9% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (48.6%).
Dante Pettis has been among the most effective pass-catchers in the league, averaging a stellar 10.31 yards-per-target this year while grading out in the 80th percentile among WRs.

Favors Under

The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.9% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 49.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Bears to call the least plays on offense on the slate this week with 61.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Chicago Bears have called the least plays in the league this year, averaging a lowly 52.0 plays per game.
The Chicago Bears O-line profiles as the worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.

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