Daniel Jones TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Daniel Jones

NFL · Player Props

Daniel Jones

QB · New York Giants

TD Passes

New York Giants vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 3, 2023 2:51 AM UTC

Analysis

Daniel Jones TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+145/-190).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -166 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -190.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Giants have been the 9th-most pass-oriented team in football near the goal line (context-neutralized) this year with a 61.9% red zone pass rate.
Still weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being called for in this game) typically prompt better passing effectiveness, higher touchdown potential, higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume.
The Seahawks safeties profile as the worst safety corps in the NFL since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

Favors Under

Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the New York Giants to pass on 56.3% of their plays: the lowest frequency on the slate this week.
The projections expect this game to have the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 127.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
In this contest, Daniel Jones is forecasted by the projection model to total the fewest pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 33.5.
The Giants offensive line ranks as the worst in football since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
Daniel Jones has been among the weakest touchdown passers in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a paltry 0.89 per game while grading out in the 18th percentile.

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