Daniel Jones TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Daniel Jones

NFL · Player Props

Daniel Jones

QB · New York Giants

TD Passes

San Francisco 49ers vs New York Giants · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 22, 2023 12:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Daniel Jones TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+170/-230).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +187 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +170.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Giants are a giant 10.5-point underdog in this game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
Opposing QBs have averaged 37.5 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense since the start of last season: 2nd-most in football.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants to be the 6th-least pass-heavy offense in the league near the end zone (adjusted for context) right now with a 53.8% red zone pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Giants to call the least offensive plays among all teams this week with 59.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Daniel Jones to attempt 31.0 passes in this game, on average: the 5th-least of all quarterbacks.
The New York Giants offensive line profiles as the worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all air attack statistics across the board.

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