Daniel Jones TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 19

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Daniel Jones

NFL · Player Props

Daniel Jones

QB · New York Giants

TD Passes

Minnesota Vikings vs New York Giants · Week 19, 2022

Updated Jan 19, 2023 4:28 PM EST

Analysis

Daniel Jones TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-120/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Giants are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run among all games this week at 134.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The New York Giants have run the 10th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 59.6 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Opposing teams have averaged 36.1 pass attempts per game versus the Minnesota Vikings defense this year: 3rd-most in the NFL.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants to be the 3rd-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 58.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants as the least pass-centric offense in the league near the end zone (adjusted for context) right now with a 50.1% red zone pass rate.
The New York Giants offensive line profiles as the worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
Daniel Jones has been among the weakest touchdown throwers in the NFL this year, averaging a miserable 0.94 per game while checking in at the 19th percentile.
The Minnesota Vikings cornerbacks profile as the 6th-best collection of CBs in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

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