Daniel Jones TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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Daniel Jones

NFL · Player Props

Daniel Jones

QB · New York Giants

TD Passes

Minnesota Vikings vs New York Giants · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 24, 2022 5:46 PM UTC

Analysis

Daniel Jones TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+160/-190).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Giants are a 4.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Giants to call the 7th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 67.6 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Daniel Jones to attempt 37.0 passes in this contest, on average: the 10th-most of all quarterbacks.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.9 pass attempts per game versus the Minnesota Vikings defense this year: 2nd-most in the NFL.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants to be the 4th-least pass-centric team in the NFL near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 49.8% red zone pass rate.
The New York Giants offensive line profiles as the 8th-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all pass game metrics across the board.
Daniel Jones has been among the bottom touchdown passers in football this year, averaging a miserable 0.86 per game while grading out in the 20th percentile.
The New York Giants offensive line has given their quarterback a measly 2.41 seconds before getting pressured (8th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all pass game stats across the board.
The New York Giants have utilized motion in their offense on 26.6% of their plays since the start of last season (2nd-least in the league), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.

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