Daniel Jones TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Daniel Jones

NFL · Player Props

Daniel Jones

QB · New York Giants

TD Passes

Washington Commanders vs New York Giants · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 1:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Daniel Jones TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-286/+205).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -265 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -286.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Giants are a heavy 7.5-point underdog in this week's game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants to be the 6th-quickest paced defense in football (in a neutral context) at the present time, leading opposing offenses to average 27.50 seconds per play.
Daniel Jones has been among the most accurate QBs in the league this year with a terrific 67.5% Completion%, checking in at the 94th percentile.
The Washington Commanders defense has given up the 9th-most passing touchdowns in the NFL: 1.54 per game this year.
The New York Giants have utilized play action on 28.4% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (10th-most in football), tricking the defense into thinking it's a run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants as the 9th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 53.2% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants as the 4th-least pass-centric offense in the league near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 49.9% red zone pass rate.
Opposing offenses have averaged 32.2 pass attempts per game against the Washington Commanders defense this year: 4th-least in the NFL.
The New York Giants offensive line profiles as the 8th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack metrics across the board.
Daniel Jones has been among the weakest TD throwers in the league this year, averaging a miserable 0.92 per game while grading out in the 21st percentile.

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