Daniel Jones TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Daniel Jones

NFL · Player Props

Daniel Jones

QB · New York Giants

TD Passes

New York Giants vs Washington Commanders · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM UTC

Analysis

Daniel Jones TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+195/-305).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The New York Giants have run the 9th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 60.1 plays per game.
The Washington Commanders defense has conceded the 9th-most passing touchdowns in football: 1.58 per game this year.
The New York Giants have incorporated play action on 28.4% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (10th-most in football), causing the defense to bite on the run and resulting in much higher passing production.
The New York Giants have gone no-huddle on 30.1% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-most in football). This speeds up the pace, resulting in more volume and stat-padding.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants as the 6th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 52.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants to be the 4th-least pass-oriented offense in the NFL near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 50.2% red zone pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.0 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Daniel Jones to attempt 30.3 passes in this contest, on average: the 5th-least of all QBs.
Opposing teams have averaged 32.3 pass attempts per game versus the Washington Commanders defense this year: 4th-least in the league.

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