Daniel Jones TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Daniel Jones

NFL · Player Props

Daniel Jones

QB · New York Giants

TD Passes

Dallas Cowboys vs New York Giants · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 24, 2022 8:31 PM EST

Analysis

Daniel Jones TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-196/+152).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ +152 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ +152.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Giants are a 3-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 135.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The New York Giants have run the 6th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a colossal 61.6 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
The New York Giants have incorporated play action on 28.4% of their passing plays since the start of last season (10th-most in football), tricking the defense into thinking it's a run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants as the 4th-least pass-heavy team in the league near the goal line (context-neutralized) right now with a 50.2% red zone pass rate.
The New York Giants offensive line grades out as the 10th-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
The Dallas Cowboys defense has conceded the 9th-least passing TDs in the league: 1.10 per game this year.
The Dallas Cowboys linebackers rank as the 4th-best group of LBs in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
The New York Giants offensive line has given their quarterback a mere 2.41 seconds before getting pressured (8th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all pass attack stats across the board.

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