Daniel Jones TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Daniel Jones

NFL · Player Props

Daniel Jones

QB · New York Giants

TD Passes

New York Giants vs Houston Texans · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 13, 2022 8:46 PM EST

Analysis

Daniel Jones TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+205/-285).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -275 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -285.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants as the 2nd-fastest paced defense in football (context-neutralized) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 27.20 seconds per play.
The Houston Texans safeties rank as the 2nd-worst unit in the league this year in pass coverage.
The New York Giants have used play action on 28.4% of their passing plays since the start of last season (10th-most in football), tricking the defense into thinking it's a run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.
The New York Giants have gone no-huddle on 30.1% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-most in football). This speeds up the pace, leading to more volume and stat-padding.

Favors Under

The Giants are a 5.5-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants as the 3rd-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 49.8% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants to be the 4th-least pass-heavy team in football near the end zone (adjusted for context) right now with a 51.9% red zone pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects Daniel Jones to attempt 30.6 passes in this game, on average: the 10th-least of all QBs.
Opposing QBs have averaged 33.6 pass attempts per game against the Houston Texans defense this year: 8th-least in football.

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