Daniel Jones TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

Daniel Jones

QB · New York Giants

TD Passes

Tennessee Titans vs New York Giants · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM EST

Analysis

Daniel Jones TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+150/-180).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Giants are a 5.5-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script.
The Giants have been the 2nd-most pass-oriented team in football near the goal line (adjusted for context) since the start of last season with a 68.2% red zone pass rate.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Tennessee Titans defense since the start of last season: 5th-most in the NFL.
The Tennessee Titans defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.55 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 4th-slowest in the league since the start of last season.
The New York Giants have incorporated play action on 28.4% of their passing plays since the start of last season (10th-most in the league), making the defense think run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Giants to call the 4th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 60.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New York Giants have run the 10th-least plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 60.9 plays per game.
The New York Giants offensive line grades out as the 2nd-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
Daniel Jones has been among the bottom touchdown passers in football since the start of last season, averaging a paltry 0.91 per game while checking in at the 21st percentile.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the 10th-lowest level in the league vs. the Tennessee Titans defense since the start of last season (68.5%).