Daniel Jones Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Daniel Jones

NFL · Player Props

Daniel Jones

QB · New York Giants

Rushing Yards

Miami Dolphins vs New York Giants · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 8, 2023 8:02 PM UTC

Analysis

Daniel Jones Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 37.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 37.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 37.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the New York Giants offense as the 9th-fastest paced team in football (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 27.57 seconds per snap.
This week, Daniel Jones is expected by our trusted projection set to accumulate the 6th-most carries out of all quarterbacks with 7.3.
Daniel Jones has been much more involved in his team's rushing attack this year (35.3% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last year (22.2%).
With an exceptional total of 41.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground (94th percentile), Daniel Jones rates among the leading rushing QBs in the NFL this year.
The Miami Dolphins defense has produced the 5th-worst efficiency against opposing running games this year, allowing 4.86 adjusted yards-per-carry.

Favors Under

The Giants are a huge 13-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
Our trusted projections expect the New York Giants as the 6th-least run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 38.0% run rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
The Giants offensive line grades out as the 8th-worst in the NFL last year at opening holes for rushers.
Daniel Jones's running effectiveness has worsened this season, accumulating a mere 4.86 adjusted yards-per-carry vs a 6.70 rate last season.
The Miami Dolphins safeties rank as the 5th-best unit in football this year when it comes to defending the run.

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