Daniel Jones Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Daniel Jones

NFL · Player Props

Daniel Jones

QB · New York Giants

Rushing Yards

San Francisco 49ers vs New York Giants · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 22, 2023 12:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Daniel Jones Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 39.5 (-103/-127).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 35.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 39.5 @ -103.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Daniel Jones to notch 7.3 rush attempts in this game, on average: the 5th-most of all quarterbacks.
THE BLITZ projects Daniel Jones to be a much bigger part of his team's rushing attack this week (29.0% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (23.8% in games he has played).
Daniel Jones has averaged 45.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the biggest figures in football among QBs (89th percentile).

Favors Under

The Giants are a giant 10.5-point underdog in this game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Giants to call the least offensive plays among all teams this week with 59.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New York Giants O-line grades out as the 8th-worst in football since the start of last season at opening holes for runners.
Daniel Jones's running efficiency has diminished this season, averaging a mere 4.58 yards-per-carry vs a 6.70 mark last season.
Opposing teams have run for the least yards in the league (just 76 per game) vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense since the start of last season.

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